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Syd's Science Project

Thanks to all those who helped Sydney with her science fair project.  Its finally finished!  Congratulations to Jordan Jackson who got the closest guess, within 4 skittles.  I'm sure you're all dying to know how many skittles were in this thing...well here you go.  The following was written by Sydney, as it appeared on her science poster:

GUESS THE RAINBOW

The Wisdom of the Crowds

In 1907, Sir Frances Galton got a big, strong, heavy ox and said if you guess this ox’s weight, I will take it to a butcher so he could take the meat out of the ox so it could be yours. Everyone was so excited to guess. the numbers were big, and the numbers were small.  There were 787 guessers, but no one got it right.

Sir Francis Galton went into his house and found the mean (average) of everybody’s guess and found that it was one pound off of the real ox’s weight!!

I wanted to do this because I thought it would be interesting to try it out. Instead of an ox’s weight, I used skittles in a container.

Question:

Is a group of people better at making guesses than individuals?

Hypothesis:

I think the average guess of a group of people will be closer than a random individual person when guessing the number of Skittles in a jar.

Materials:

1. a plastic container
2. Skittles
3. $10.00 gift card for the winner
4. Ballot box
5. Guessing cards

STEPS:

1. I filled a jar with Skittles.

2. My mom counted the Skittles from the jar and wouldn’t tell me or else I might influence the people in getting a closer number than what they thought.

3. My dad and I went to a mall to ask people to write down their guesses for the Skittles.
-I also asked friends.
-My dad also took it to work to ask his fellow co-workers.
-My dad also set up a blog so people could do their guesses on the internet.

4. After that, we added all the numbers up (all 144 guesses) and got 57,621. Then we found the mean which is 400 and compared it to the actual number of Skittles, which is 469.
-I also found the mean for the ages: 17 and under, and 18 and older.
-The mean for 17 and under is: 424
-The mean for 18 and older is: 388

5. after all that, we made a stacked bar graph of 18 and older guesses, and 17 and under guesses.

DATA (results):

1. Total of “in person” guesses: 36,373
Participants: 92    Average guess: 395

2. Total of “online” guesses: 21,248
Participants: 52    Average guess: 408.6

3. Total of Overall guesses: 57,621
Participants: 144    Average guess: 400

4. 18 and older average: 388

5. 17 and younger average: 424

Actual number of Skittles: 469

(WINNER) Closest guess: 473

Number of participants who did as well or better than the total average guess: 28 (19.4%)

Did the results match the hypothesis?

The results DID match the hypothesis because only 28 out of the 144 people got closer to the actual number than the number than the mean got. Even though I thought the mean would be closer.

Guess the Skittles

THIS CONTEST IS CLOSED.  DO NOT REPLY WITH A GUESS AS IT WILL NOT COUNT.

This is being conducted by my daughter, Sydney:

I am doing a science fair project for my school and I will need your help. 

I will need your help to guess how many skittles are in the container pictured below. 

The person who gets closest will get all the skittles in the container.  They will also get a choice of a $10 itunes gift card or a portrait of you from my dad. (In case of a tie, all the names will go into a random drawing for a winner.)

Here is what you need to include in your answer:
1. your name
2. your age
3. contact information (email, phone #, Facebook, etc.)
4. your guess

Please post your answer in the comments below.

Here is a photo of the container, it measures 10.5" high and 3" at the base.

Top View:

View of the base:

Sydney with her project:

Thanks so much for helping me out and for your vote.

 

Detective Holder

This is one of my all time favorite characters, Detective Holder played by Joel Kinnaman from the AMC show, The Killing.

Wendy and I recently got into The Killing on AMC.  Based on a Danish series, Forbrydelsen, the show follows the murder investigation of Rosie Larsen, a teenage girl who goes missing and is found in the trunk of a mayoral campaign car in a lake in Seatle.  Family reactions, the effects on the mayoral race, the imperfections of the detectives and the investigation itself create a storyline that completely sucks you in.  This show is so good even though there are times it drags on a bit in the middle.  It covers two seasons of 13 episodes each and I did feel like it could have been shortened by a few episodes here and there but for the most part, I was totally entrenched. 

The acting and character development were phenomenal.  Each character, was so multi-dimentional and real, with flaws and human motivations.  You really feel the heartache from the family's perspective and nothing is black and white.  I feared early on that the show was relying on the character development and was just making up the story as it went, like Twin Peaks or more recently LOST ended up doing, but it was very careful to be consistent and it was obvious that by the end that they did it right.  They had a pretty good idea when they started what the ending would be and I can't recall painting themselves into any serious corners... at least they weren't bad enough to detract from the enjoyment of the show.

Detective Holder is a complicated guy.  He at first appears to have a pretty dark side, which he does, but there's a very likeable aspect to his character as well.  You end up rooting for him pretty early on.  In this digital painting I did of him, I'm imagining him at your door on a dark night asking if he can come in and ask a few questions.  My first instinct would be to slam the door and lock all the deadbolts...

Here's the preview:



 

Ron Paul

Ron Paul is kind of an unlikely candidate for President and even more unlikely as a serious candidate. He's 76 years old for starters, two years older than John McCain. He is also a pretty consistent libertarian. Libertarians are kind of like the redheaded stepchildren of the Republican party. The party is happy to have them vote in their block but don't want them to be very influential.

Liberals would probably agree with him on most of his non fiscal views. Ron Paul wants to bring all of our troops home, not just from Iraq and Afghanistan but our military bases all around the globe like Europe and in South Korea and generally stay out of other countries' business. He opposes the Patriot Act, the use of torture, warrantless domestic surveilance, and wants to end the War on Drugs.

They probably won't be quite as happy with his views on the Second Ammendment, wanting to eliminate the Department of Education nationally and he thinks abortion laws should be handled by the state. Those who are fiscally conservative will probably agree with him on fiscal issues. He wants to audit the Federal Reserve, dramatically lower taxes, cut spending and all those things fiscal conservatives like.

Can he actually win the nomination, let alone the Presidency? As of now, Paul is actually polling with the pack of non-Romney candidates and there's an interesting thing with the delegates which could give him a boost as well. This article from Huffington Post explains that Ron Paul has been focusing on delegates more than actual votes in the States which have caucuses. I do think he's going to need to have some "wins" even if they are only symbolic.

It is interesting how far he has come despite the media's snubbing of the guy. Back in August, Jon Stewart did a piece on the lack of acknowledgement towards Ron Paul after the Republican Straw Poll:



The only thing predictable about politics is that its unpredictable. It will be interesting to see what happens. In all likelihood, I think Mitt Romney is going to be the nominee for the Republicans... but don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

Dan Carlin- "What if Alexander the Great had a podcast"

What if Alexander the Great had a podcast? This is the question Dan Carlin asks in his intro video on his website found here.

What is podcasting anyway? It's a hard question to answer because it is such a diverse media. I always feel like I'm doing a disservice to the medium when I answer this question to others. One way I try to explain it is that ts kind of like a talk radio show that you get on the internet. That doesn't quite work because of the image "talk radio" invokes. Talk radio is almost always political in nature and political podcasts are at least not the norm. There are history podcasts, philosophy podcasts, religious podcasts, cooking podcasts, even storytelling podcasts. There are podcasts on just about any subject you can think of.

Another difference is that anyone with a microphone and a computer with an internet connection can create a podcast. This is a double edged sword. There are some real gems out there but there is a sea of mediocrity, much like the blogosphere. A podcast is kind of an audio blog. Dan is so good, he has two.

Hardcore History is probably my favorite podcast out there. Definitely my favorite history podcast. Dan is an amateur historian so he often skips the bits from history which are not as interesting but what makes this show so good is that he tells history like a storyteller. Globalization to Death is a good one to start with in which he talks about the first wave of globalization as he follows Magellan around the globe and gets us to use our modern notions of globalization to put us in their shoes. There are some pretty intense long ones as well like the six part series on the fall of the Roman Republic. If you're into history, you should listen to Hardcore History. If you're not into history, you should listen to Hardcore History.

Common Sense has a slightly more focused demographic. If you like politics and current events, Dan always has an interesting take. He often takes the position of an extra terrestrial visitor and how they would view the world without our inherrent biases. He generally sees the two party system as broken and always has a take which you won't hear from the right or the left. You probably won't agree with him always (no matter where you fall politically) but always insightful. He cranks one of these out about every two weeks.

So, in his intro Dan Carlin asks the question, "What if Alexander the Great had a podcast?" He then asks what if lots of the ordinary people from Alexander's time had podcasts as well and how we'd get a very 3 dimensional view of that time in history. "Well, our decendants are going to have a very three dimensional view of ours," he goes on to say, thanks to the new media and the ability of everyone to be able to have a small voice in the world. With greater opportunity comes a greater responsibility since there's a good chance what we put on the virtual space will outlive us.

Here's a list of some of my favorite podcasts:

Memory Palace
Radiolab
Skeptoid
Skeptic's Guide to the Universe
History According to Bob
Big Picture Science
Philosophy Bites

Mormon based podcasts:
-Mormon Stories - I covered this one here.
-Mormon Matters - Believer friendly but delves more into the "meat".

A great source for podcast reviews by a Dutch fellow living in Israel named Anne:
-Anne is a Man!

Puppies

We got a puppy before Christmas and she's lots of fun. She gets into things she's not supposed to, she whines when she wants something and is all sorts of trouble. She's been pretty receptive to training. As long as you have a treat, she'll do anything you say. She's a cute puppy.

We had our nephews over one weekend and the youngest, age 4 had a lot of similarities to our little puppy. Whines, gets into stuff he's not supposed to and is all sorts of trouble. We did get him to sit still for a while at a basketball game... but I have to admit it was mostly because of the candy in my wife's purse. He's a cute little puppy too.